Demographic projections of the effect of the removal of the second-generation cut-off
Projected number of registered individuals resulting from the removal of the second-generation cut-off and implementation of the one-parent rule.
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Demographic projections
Statistics Canada developed demographic projections using the Demosim microsimulation model to estimate the number of individuals who would become newly registered if the one-parent rule were implemented.
The model accounts for demographic and legislative factors, including births, deaths, marital status, and transmission of entitlement under the Indian Act. This webpage provides key results of these projections and an overview of the methods and assumptions used to produce these projections.
Statistics Canada prepared three projection scenarios (low, medium, and high growth) to model future registration estimates under the one-parent rule. While each scenario assumes the same number of individuals would become entitled through the retrospective application of the one-parent rule to 1985, they differ in their assumptions about the proportion of newly entitled individuals who would apply for registration and become registered. These differences reflect the uncertainty surrounding future registration rates.Footnote 1
To estimate the impact of implementing the one-parent rule, Statistics Canada compared these scenarios with corresponding projections based on the current registration provisions (the status quo). Comparing each pair of scenarios (for example, the medium-growth scenario under the one-parent rule with the medium-growth scenario under the current rules) provides an estimate of the number of additional individuals who could become registered if the one-parent rule were implemented.
Results are available for:
- each province and territory
- across Canada and outside of Canada
Results have been rounded to the nearest hundred. Estimates on a community level have not been prepared as they are deemed inaccurate at this point in time.
The projections run from April 1, 2028, to March 31, 2066.
Key takeaways
The estimated number of additional registered individuals resulting from the implementation of the one-parent rule varies depending on the growth scenario. Across Canada and abroad, the number of additional registered individuals is projected to be:
- between 18,100 and 24,600 after the first year (2029)
- between 86,000 and 115,900 after the first five years (2033)
- between 154,000 and 200,000 after the first 15 years (2043)
- between 304,500 and 438,400 by 2066 (long term)
It is expected that 95% to 97% of these additional registered individuals would live off reserve.
Data
These projections assume that the one-parent rule comes into force on April 1, 2028.
To determine the base population and the projection parameters, Statistics Canada used different sources of information, including:
- Indian Registration System (IRS)
- censuses of population
- Canadian vital statistics (birth and death databases)
- record linkages (IRS-censuses and IRS-death records)
- surveys
- expert opinions
Projection tables (Canada and outside of Canada)
Scenario: Low growth
| Year | Status quo registrants | One-parent rule registrants | Increase in registrants due to one-parent rule (number and percent) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2029 (1 year) | 1,146,700 | 1,164,800 | 18,100 (1.6%) |
| 2033 (5 years) | 1,170,100 | 1,256,100 | 86,000 (7.3%) |
| 2043 (15 years) | 1,213,400 | 1,367,400 | 154,000 (12.7%) |
| 2066 (38 years) | 1,220,600 | 1,525,100 | 304,500 (24.9%) |
Scenario: Medium growth
| Year | Status quo registrants | One-parent rule registrants | Increase in registrants due to one-parent rule (number and percent) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2029 (1 year) | 1,164,800 | 1,189,400 | 24,600 (2.1%) |
| 2033 (5 years) | 1,197,400 | 1,313,300 | 115,900 (9.7%) |
| 2043 (15 years) | 1,260,800 | 1,460,700 | 200,000 (15.9%) |
| 2066 (38 years) | 1,315,200 | 1,702,300 | 387,100 (29.4%) |
Scenario: High growth
| Year | Status quo registrants | One-parent rule registrants | Increase in registrants due to one-parent rule (number and percent) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2029 (1 year) | 1,245,300 | 1,266,700 | 21,400 (1.7%) |
| 2033 (5 years) | 1,345,300 | 1,447,800 | 102,500 (7.6%) |
| 2043 (15 years) | 1,518,300 | 1,717,100 | 198,800 (13.1%) |
| 2066 (38 years) | 1,626,600 | 2,065,000 | 438,400 (27.0%) |
The increase in registrants due to the one-parent rule under the high-growth scenario is lower than under the medium-growth scenario at the beginning of the projection. For example, the increase in the number of registrants in 2033 is projected to be 102,500 under the high-growth scenario, but 115,900 under the medium-growth scenario. This is because of an interaction between scenario-specific assumptions regarding the future number of registrations due to S-3, which is much larger under the high-growth scenario, and the future number of registrations attributed to the one-parent rule. In the long-term (as shown in the table for 2066), the additional number of registrants due to the one-parent rule is greatest under the high-growth scenario because of its high fertility assumption.
Provincial and territorial projection data
These projections assume the implementation of a one-parent rule coming into force on April 1, 2028. They include the range of estimated additional registered individuals for the low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios for each province and territory. These results have been rounded to the nearest hundred.
| Province/territory | 2029 (1 year) | 2033 (5 years) | 2043 (15 years) | 2066 (38 years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta | 2,800 – 3,800 | 13,500 – 18,200 | 25,300 – 32,600 | 53,500 – 72,500 |
| British Columbia | 2,600 – 3,500 | 12,500 – 16,800 | 22,700 – 29,200 | 44,900 – 60,300 |
| Manitoba | 2,300 – 3,200 | 10,800 – 14,700 | 18,200 – 23,800 | 31,600 – 43,600 |
| New Brunswick | 300 – 500 | 1,600 – 2,200 | 2,800 – 4,000 | 5,500 – 8,100 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 200 – 300 | 1,000 – 1,400 | 1,600 – 2,400 | 3,200 – 4,900 |
| Northwest Territories | 300 – 400 | 1,200 – 1,600 | 1,800 – 2,400 | 2,500 – 3,600 |
| Nova Scotia | 400 – 600 | 1,800 – 2,600 | 3,000 – 4,500 | 5,600 – 8,500 |
| Nunavut | 0 – 100 | 200 – 300 | 400 – 500 | 700 – 1,100 |
| Ontario | 4,800 – 6,500 | 22,500 – 30,400 | 40,700 – 52,800 | 82,700 – 115,400 |
| Prince Edward Island | 0 – 100 | 200 – 300 | 300 – 500 | 500 – 800 |
| Quebec | 1,600 – 2,100 | 7,700 – 10,000 | 15,500 – 23,800 | 37,200 – 60,500 |
| Saskatchewan | 1,900 – 2,600 | 8,700 – 11,800 | 14,500 – 19,200 | 24,700 – 34,700 |
| Yukon | 100 – 100 | 400 – 600 | 700 – 900 | 1,100 – 1,500 |
Cautionary notes
Projections are useful tools, but they rely on best-available information to make assumptions which may not always end up being accurate. For example, not all individuals who become entitled choose to immediately register, as occurred following the passage of Bill S-3 in 2019. Registrations tend to occur gradually over time as people become aware of a change in their entitlement, but the rate at which entitled people apply for registration is difficult to predict.
Despite the sophisticated methods used in the projections, its results are subject to substantial uncertainty, which tends to increase over time. The projections are based on various assumptions, which may or may not reflect accurately future changes impacting the registered population, such as:
- births
- deaths
- rate of mixed parenting (only one registered parent)
- the number of registrations
Some of the assumptions that lead to the largest variations are:
- the future number of registrations under S-3
- the retrospective application of the one-parent rule as proposed in the amended version of Bill S-2
To partially address the uncertainty about the future, Statistics Canada:
- developed more than one scenario to show more than one possible future
- used the full range of results by various scenarios
These projections may be used as a tool to support decision-making, but the estimates should be used with caution, since actual registration may occur at a different volume than the projections indicate.
Contact us
Email Reforme-de-linscription-Registration-Reform@sac-isc.gc.ca if you:
- have questions about the projections
- want to be added to the distribution list for future updates
Related links
- Collaborative Process on the Second-Generation Cut-off and Section 10 Voting Thresholds
- Collaborative Process on the Second-Generation Cut-Off and Section 10 Voting Thresholds: Community Specific Data Sheets
- Information Sessions on The Collaborative Process on the Second-Generation Cut-off and Section 10 Voting Thresholds
- Background on Indian registration